IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report

IN NEWS:

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published third instalment of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) on April 4, 2022.

MORE ON NEWS:

• The third part of report prepared by the IPCC Working Group III (WG-III) deals with the mitigation of climate change.

• The first part of this report, on the physical science of climate change, was released in August 2021 and it had warned that 1.5 degree Celsius warming was likely to be achieved before 2040 itself.
• The second part of the report, published in March 2022, deals with climate change impacts, risks and vulnerabilities, and adaptation options.

ASSESMENT REPORTS:

• The IPCC’s Assessment Reports (ARs) are produced every few years.
• They are the most comprehensive and widely accepted scientific evaluations of the state of the Earth’s climate.
• They form the basis for government policies to tackle climate change, and provide the scientific foundation for the international climate change negotiations.
• Six Assessment Reports have been published so far.
• The previous ones were in 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007 and 2013.
• In 2018, the IPCC released a Special Report on Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C.

KEY FINDINGS OF THE REPORT:

• Greenhouse gas emissions:
  • In 2019, global net anthropogenic GHG emissions were at 59 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e), 54 per cent higher than in 1990.
    • Anthropogenic emissions refer to emissions that originate from human-driven activities like the burning of coal for energy or cutting of forests.
  • The emissions growth has been driven mainly by CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and the industrial sector, as well as methane emissions.
  • But the average annual rate of growth slowed to 1.3 per cent per year in the period 2010-19, compared to 2.1 per cent per year in the period 2000-09.
  • At least 18 countries have reduced GHG emissions due to decarbonisation of their energy system, energy efficiency measures and reduced energy demand.
• Emissions by least developed countries in the world:
  • Emission by Least Developed Countries (LDCs) was only 3.3 per cent of global emissions in 2019.
  • Their average per capita emissions in the period 1990-2019 were only 1.7 tonnes CO2e, compared to the global average of 6.9 tCO2e(tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent).
  • LDCs contributed less than 0.4 per cent of total historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry in the period 1850-2019.
• Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs):
  • Upon adding up the NDCs(pledges made by countries who have signed the Paris Agreement) announced by countries till October 2021, the IPCC finds that it is likely that warming will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) in this century, thereby failing the Paris Agreement’s mandate.
  • The CO2 emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure, coal, oil, and gas, contribute greatly to this projected failure.

• Low-emission or zero carbon pathways of development:
  • To achieve the 1.5°C target widespread ‘system transformations’ are required across the energy, buildings, transport, land and other sectors, and this will involve adopting low-emission or zero carbon pathways of development in each sector.
  • The costs of low emissions technologies have fallen continuously since 2010. On a unit costs basis, solar energy has dropped 85 per cent, wind by 55 per cent, and lithium-ion batteries by 85 per cent.
  • The deployment low emissions technologies have increased multiple folds since 2010 — 10 times for solar and 100 times for electric vehicles.
  • Report says that the demand-side mitigation, ie, behavioural changes such as adopting plant-based diets, or shifting to walking and cycling can reduce global GHG emissions in end use sectors by 40-70 per cent by 2050 compared to baseline scenarios and improve wellbeing.
  • It also adds that most of the potential for demand-side mitigation currently lies in developed countries.
• Impact of climate mitigation options on GDP:
  • As per the report investing in decarbonisation would have a minimal impact on global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
  • The IPCC states that low-cost climate mitigation options, i.e., those costing $100 per tCO2e or less, could halve global GHG emissions by 2030.
  • The long-term benefits of limiting warming far outweigh the costs.
• Finance:
  • Financial flows fall short of the levels needed to achieve the ambitious mitigation goals.
  • The gaps are the widest for the agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU) sector and for developing countries.
  • Report says that the global financial system is large enough and “sufficient global capital and liquidity” exist to close these gaps.

WHAT THE REPORT UNDERLINES

• Keeping the world under 1.5C requires emissions to peak by 2025, the researchers say, and shrink by 43% by the end of this decade.
  • The most effective way of making that switch is to generate energy from sustainable sources like wind and solar.
• Keeping temperatures down won't really be possible without some form of removal, be it via trees or air filtering machines.
  • The idea of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has now gone fully mainstream with the endorsement of the IPCC in this latest report.
• Reducing people's demand for energy in the areas of shelter, mobility and nutrition.
  • This covers a multitude of areas including low carbon diets, reducing food waste, energy efficient buildings, and more carbon friendly transport options etc.
  • The IPCC believes changes in these areas could limit emissions from end-use sectors by 40-70% by 2050, while improving well-being.
• There is far too much money still flowing towards fossil fuels and not to clean energy climate solutions, which need to be changed.
  • If fossil fuel subsidies from governments were removed, this would reduce emissions by up to 10% by 2030, according to Greenpeace.
  • The IPCC says that models that incorporate the economic damages caused by climate change show that the global cost of limiting warming to 2C over this century is lower than the global economic benefits of reducing warming.

PRACTICE QUESTION:

Q.What are the major takeaways form IPCC Sixth Assessment report? Discuss various strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation.