Israel-Iran Conflict & India

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GS 2 >>> International Relations >> India and Global powers

REFERENCE NEWS

Recent developments in the Iran-Israel conflict have heightened risks for India's interests in West Asia. In retaliation for an attack on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Damascus on April 1, which resulted in the deaths of a senior member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards and eight other officers, Iran launched numerous drones and cruise missiles at Israel. 

India has expressed ‘serious concern‘ at the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict and has called for ‘immediate de-escalation‘ of the conflict.

HISTORY OF IRAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT

Phase of Cooperation-From 1948-1979

1. The Pahlavi Dynasty (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) which ruled Iran from 1925-1979 maintained close ties with Israel.
2. Iran became the second Muslim-majority nation after Turkey to officially recognize Israel in 1948. Israel established a de facto embassy in Tehran.
3. The two countries saw an extensive deepening of relations in the economic/trade (Iran became a major oil provider for Israel), military and security cooperation (SAVAK, the Iranian security and intelligence service was partly trained by Mossad).

Phase of Conflict-After the Iran Revolution 1979

1. After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was ousted and the new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, adopted a policy of standing up to “arrogant” world powers and adopted a pro-Palestine stand.
2. Israel came to be known in Iran as the ‘Little Satan’ to the ‘Great Satan’ the US.
3. Iran cut off all ties with Israel. Israeli embassy in Tehran was transformed into the Palestinian embassy.
4. Khomeini declared every last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan as Quds Day, on which large rallies are taken out in support of Palestinians across Iran.

Modern Phase of Conflict

1. Proxy Militias and Wars- Iran has been engaging in proxy wars by fighting supporting proxy militias against Israel like Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), Houthis (Yemen).
2. Attack on Iranian Nuclear Programme- The Iranian nuclear programme, which has been a primary focus of Israel, was attacked by US’ Stuxnet computer virus in 2000s to target centrifuges enriching uranium as claimed by Iran. Further, there have been attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists.
3. US withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Agreement- Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018 was seen as a blow to Tehran and a victory for Israel.

IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA IN THE ESCALATING IRAN-ISRAEL CONFLICT

• Safety of Indian Expatriates: The recent increase in tensions between Iran and Israel threatens the well-being of the vast Indian community in the region, which includes around 18,000 Indians in Israel, a few thousand in Iran, and nearly 9 million in the Gulf and other West Asian countries. Their security and livelihoods are at significant risk.
• Threats to Energy Security: An escalation in hostilities could severely impact India's energy supply, given that West Asia is the source of 80% of India's oil imports. Such a conflict could lead to heightened energy prices and supply disruptions.
• Economic Growth Concerns: Rising oil prices as a result of the conflict could adversely affect India’s economic growth, increasing inflation, disturbing trade balances, and potentially leading to a devaluation of the Indian rupee.
• Impact on Financial Markets: The Indian equity and bullion markets are already under stress from reduced foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment due to increased interest rates in the United States. A full-scale conflict could exacerbate these conditions, potentially leading to a rise in gold prices, reminiscent of the price spikes during the Ukraine-Russia conflict and previous Israel-Hamas wars.
• Setbacks to the IMEC Corridor: The growing Iran-Israel conflict risks undermining the progress India has made on the India-Middle-East-Europe (IMEC) Economic Corridor, which holds strategic and economic value for India.
• Diplomatic Tightrope: The escalation complicates India’s diplomatic efforts to maintain balanced strategic relations with both Iran and Israel. With the conflict widening, India may find it challenging to sustain its neutral stance without affecting its relationships with either country.

SIGNIFICANCE OF ISRAEL AND IRAN TO INDIA

Israel’s Role in India’s Strategic Framework

1. Trade and Economic Ties: India boasts a thriving trade relationship with Israel, with India emerging as one of Israel's top Asian trade partners. The bilateral trade volume has soared from USD 200 million in 1992 to USD 6.35 billion recently, not accounting for defence transactions.
2. Defence Cooperation: Israel is a key supplier of defence technology to India, accounting for 41% of Israel's defence exports. The Indian military's arsenal includes advanced Israeli systems such as the Phalcon AWACS, Heron drones, and Barak missile defence systems.
3. Energy Collaboration: India has secured rights for hydrocarbon exploration and potential importation from Israel's Tamar and Leviathan gas fields, marking a significant shift in their bilateral relationship towards the energy sector.
4. Research and Development: The India-Israel Industrial R&D and Technological Innovation Fund (I4F) fosters joint industrial research and development endeavors, reflecting strong bilateral cooperation in science and technology.
5. Space Partnership: The two nations have been collaborating in space technology since 2002, with India launching Israeli satellites TecSAR and RISAT-2, using the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV) provided by ISRO.

Iran’s Contribution to India’s Strategic Interests

1. Energy Provisions: Iran has traditionally been a crucial oil supplier to India, although this dynamic has been challenged by international sanctions.
2. Converging Security Interests: Both India and Iran face mutual security threats stemming from terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan, with shared concerns over the Taliban's actions and the push for a diverse and representative government in Kabul.
3. Geopolitical and Infrastructural Investment: The development of the Chabahar port by India in Iran represents a strategic investment, offering India a conduit to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing geopolitical constraints.

WAY FORWARD

• Diplomatic Messaging: India’s call for immediate de-escalation is more than a request for calm; it's a strategic stance. In urging parties to step away from further aggression and recommit to diplomatic dialogue, India positions itself as a proponent of peace and stability. The emphasis on dialogue reflects India's foreign policy ethos of non-violence and negotiated settlement of disputes.
• Multifaceted Regional Engagement: India's geopolitical strategy must adeptly navigate the complex web of relationships and rivalries in the Middle East. With each country, from Egypt to the UAE, holding divergent views on regional conflicts, India must exercise deft diplomacy to maintain its ties without alienating any side. This requires a balancing act that respects the individual dynamics and strategic partnerships India holds with these nations, whether it be in terms of energy security with Iran and Saudi Arabia, counterterrorism initiatives with Israel and Egypt, or economic investments with the UAE and Qatar.
• Pragmatic Non-Ideological Approach: India's involvement in the Middle East should prioritize practical objectives over ideological alignments. This involves engaging with all parties based on shared interests such as economic cooperation, security, and mutual benefit rather than becoming mired in the ideological complexities that often characterize Middle Eastern geopolitics. Such a stance not only safeguards India’s interests but also enhances its role as a potential mediator and a stable partner in an otherwise volatile region.

Thus, the way forward for India is to articulate a clear, peace-seeking diplomatic position, manage a delicate balance of relations with key Middle Eastern nations, and pursue a pragmatic, interest-driven approach that prioritizes mutual benefits and constructive engagement over ideological commitments.

PRACTICE QUESTION

Q: Analyze the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on India's foreign policy objectives, and suggest how India can navigate its ties with crucial Middle Eastern nations amidst these tensions. (10M,150W).